THE NFL OFFSEASON STOCK MARKET
What to buy, What to sell, What to Hold, and other general nonsense.
The NFL offseason is one giant rumor mill. With nothing but workout videos, snippets from training camps, and beat reporter reviews to go off of, we all try our best to piece together what we think will happen in the upcoming season. We are almost always wrong. That said, let’s do exactly that right now.
Who’s hot? Who’s hit the peak of their value? Why didn’t I invest in Bitcoin 5 years ago and become a crypto millionaire like all the other late 20’s millennial white men? At least 2/3 of those questions will be answered below, starting with…
STOCKS TO BUY:
1. The Baltimore Ravens
We have officially dramatically overcorrected on the Ravens, and more specifically, Lamar Jackson. Somehow Jalen Hurts has overtaken Lamar as the consensus darling, and most media analysts view this as a “prove it” year for Lamar in the new Todd Monken offense. Hi, we’ve all watched Lamar, right? Is there a single player that gives a DC more nightmares than Lamar Jackson does? If there is, it’s a very short list. Lamar has BY FAR the most talented receiver room he’s ever had now, with an OC who’s going to encourage him to air it out. Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr., and a healthy Rashod Bateman is a legit WR room for the first time, idk, ever? And everyone’s favorite TD magnet, Mark Andrews, is back healthy too. The defense will be an asset like always, and this is my clear favorite to win the division with Joe Burrow banged up in Cincinnati.
2. The Green Bay Packers
I just have lots of ~ feelings ~ about the NFC North in general, but here’s just a bunch of reasons why I like the Packers. First, I think Jordan Love is going to be pretty good. Will he be Aaron Rodgers? Obviously not. That said, Matt LaFleur is unquestionably a good offensive coach, and I don’t think the drop off will be dramatic from the (let’s be honest) lackluster production from Rodgers last year. Second, I think the roster is good and getting a year older will only help. They were young at wide receiver. They were young on defense. Another year, and another offseason, should help just about everyone on the roster. Lastly, the division is wide open in my opinion. The Lions are the darling, but this is still the Lions we’re talking about. The Vikings are everyone’s favorite regression candidate. And the Bears have a QB we’re still not sure can throw. I think the Packers could do very well this year if things go their way.
3. The New Orleans Saints
In all mentions, I have to preface that yes, I am a Saints fan. I swear though, I have my reasons. The first and most obvious is the upgrade at QB. I am not delusional enough to pretend Derek Carr is going to take us to a Super Bowl, but he’s a big step up from Andy Dalton. Also, the other QBs in the division are Desmond Ridder, Andy Dalton (or Bryce Young if he starts Week 1), and Kyle Trask OR Baker Mayfield, neither of which has won the job yet. Derek Carr doesn’t look so bad now, does he? The Saints are also the #1 team in SoS (Strength of Schedule) and have a VERY light schedule against opposing QBs. If there’s one thing I trust Dennis Allen to do, it’s give bad QBs a rough time with his defense. Don’t look now, but I kinda think the Saints might run away with the NFC South unless Ridder and Young are just a different level of talent than I’m expecting.
4. Kyler Murray
Not gonna spend too long here, but just wanna say the Kyler slander has gotten out of control. When healthy, he’s absolutely one of the most talented QBs in the league. He’s only one year older than Jalen Hurts. Are we 10000% sure the Eagles would be a worst team with Kyler at QB? I’m not. So anyway, I’ll happily be on the side of “I told you so” when Kyler is back.
STOCKS TO SELL:
1. The AFC East
Yup, just all of it. I’m not out entirely, but let’s all just chill the fuck out ok. The Bills have MAJOR question marks, ranging everywhere from “Can Josh stay healthy” to “Can Josh and Diggs stay friends?”. The Jets are the Jets, one of the most infamous franchises across modern sports. We’re going to pretend like 75 year old Aaron Rodgers in a new system makes them a Super Bowl team? The offensive line alone loses me there. The Dolphins have a QB with more concussions than games played, and no contingency plan for (when)/if he gets hurt. And dear lord, absolutely miss me with the Patriots. All in all, I’m out on this division. I like the Bills by far the most, but come playoff time, I’m not expecting anyone from this division to be playing in the AFC Championship game.
2. Really Good But Not Great Wide Receivers
When everyone is a good 1B, is no one a good 1B WR? There’s a clear cream of the NFL’s WR crop, and while some would debate exactly where the tier ends, it’s some order of Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Ja’Marr Chase, AJ Brown, and Cooper Kupp. That leaves about 15 guys (CeeDee Lamb, Jaylen Waddle, Amari Cooper, etc.) just on the outside. Guys we all know are great, but ultimately not at the level of the 7 above them. Moreover, it seems easier than ever to find guys of this caliber in the draft. Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Drake London, and even George Pickens all flashed this potential in their rookie year alone, and that’s just last year’s class. With the WR1 group growing, but the WR1A group remaining the same size, it’s clear teams should be focusing their efforts on landing the true difference maker at WR unless you have Patrick Mahomes playing quarterback, given how easy it seems to replace your 1B.
3. College Coaches
This is maybe a tad bit late, as the stock is already down, but dear God. It doesn’t work. Kliff didn’t work. Urban didn’t work. Rhule didn’t work. Chip Kelly before them didn’t work. College coaches are fetch. Stop trying to make them happen.
STOCKS TO HOLD:
1. Year 2 of “Feel Good” Teams
This group includes the Lions, Seahawks, Jaguars, and Giants. I’m not saying they’re going to take a step back (although I won’t be surprised if they do). I’m also not saying they’ll take a step forward (although I won’t be surprised if they do). All of these teams, on paper, improved dramatically in the offseason. The Lions, Seahawks, and Giants had some of my favorite drafts. The Jaguars have Calvin Ridley instated. It’s easy to get excited, but it’s equally easy to doubt their success, given how all of these teams outperformed preseason expectations. So in short, just chill. Wait. See what happens. Don’t make any bold claims with these teams.
2. Mike McDaniel Praise
Look, no one needs to hear this more than me. I love the guy. I think he’s brilliant, and I think he’s exactly the kind of coach I’d want to play for. That said, let’s all just take one big breath. He’s coached for one year, and in that year he was handed the fastest WR room to potentially ever exist and a prime Tyreek Hill season (maybe what will end up being the best of his career, we’ll see). I absolutely think he’s going to back it up, but I will not be surprised if they stumble a little bit in year 2. Basically, let’s just see it one more time before we crown him as one of the new kings of NFL offense.
3. The Athletic QB
Couple things here. One, I fucking love them. I am part of the problem. They’re just so fun. If my choice is watch Minshew or Josh Allen, guess who I’m choosing. That said, have we maybe overvalued the athletic traits at QB? The trend to look for great athletes at the position has increased dramatically since Allen’s success story, and raw toolsy guys are the new flavor of the month. That said, depending on how you categorize Mahomes, an athletic QB is yet to win anything of significance in the NFL since the emphasis uptick. Sure, Jalen Hurts was great with the Eagles last year, and made it further than any athletic QB since Cam Newton, but that Eagles roster was built to win with just about anyone at QB. The long story short is, I do think athletic QBs (code for guys that can run) are valuable. I would prefer my QB to be athletic. I also think fantasy has slightly inflated their value in the every day fan’s mind. The verdict is still out if the athleticism is the difference maker at the position, and I expect a pendulum swing soon if guys don’t start having more success.
