The 2023-24 NFL Over Under Power Rankings

I’ve never been more confident about anything in my life than these rankings.

Vegas recently released their win total projects for every NFL team heading into the 2023-24 season. Now, it is waaaaay too early to be doing this. There’s still the draft, as well as training camp injuries to account for, but as of today (March 28, 2023) these are the undeniably correct rankings for every team’s over/under projected total.

Here’s how they work. It’s not really a “ranking” as much as it is a spectrum. The team at #1 will be my most confident pick for going “over” their total. The team at #32 will be my most confident pick for going “under” their total. The teams hanging out in the middle are the ones I’m less convicted about. Make sense for the most part? Sure it does. I’ll do tiers, it’ll make sense. Promise. Kk here we go.

Tier 1: Confident OVER.
1. Tennessee Titans Over 7.5 (-105)
Vrabel has one season under this total, last year, and he was Josh Dobbs away from going over anyway. A weak schedule and another season of Derrick Henry should get him back on track.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers Over 8.5 (-115)
Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record and he’s not about to start now.

3. Buffalo Bills Over 10.5 (-125)
They’ve got a tough schedule but a healthy Josh Allen is good for 11 wins with one arm, I’m pretty sure. Curious to see how the new look defense will be, though.

4. Detroit Lions Over 9 (-150)
First off, the flat 9 here is a great number. Means you push if they go 9-8. So that’s huge. I expect the NFC North to be one of the weaker divisions in the sport next year, and I’m definitely buying into the Lions hype. At the very least, 9 wins seems very doable.

5. Kansas City Chiefs Over 11.5 (-110)
Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid still there? Ya? Cool. Over.

Tier 2: OVER! Wait, yeah…over.
6. Cincinnati Bengals Over 11.5 (-110)
Yes, 12 wins is a lot, but if Lamar really leaves the Ravens I think they’re an easy pick to win the division. They made upgrades over the offseason. There’s just a lot to like.

7. Dallas Cowboys Over 9.5 (-120)
The entire NFCE is hampered by a tough schedule, but even then, 10 wins feels pretty doable as long as Dak stays healthy and Micah Parsons exists.

8. Denver Broncos Over 8.5 (-115)
Is the Sean Payton boost really worth this much? Yes, yes it is. Trust me, this is coming from a Saints fan. Also that defense is still awesome.

9. Arizona Cardinals Over 5.5 (+105)
Call me crazy, but 6 wins just feels doable, especially if Kyler comes back on the earlier side. ACL injuries are healing faster and faster these days. I worry about Jonathan Gannon though.

10. Los Angeles Chargers Over 9.5 (-115)
Justin Herbert is very good at football. I like the addition of Kellen Moore. Maybe, for once, they’ll maintain some reasonable level of health. 10 wins just feels safe enough, but I worry about the Chargers curse, trust me.

Tier 3: Uh. OVER? I guess?
11. Seattle Seahawks Over 8.5 (-125)
They get two first round draft picks to improve on an already solid roster. I believe the Geno we saw last year is real. I think 9-8 sounds just about right. Definitely not dying to make this bet.

12. Philadelphia Eagles Over 10.5 (-130)
This number is way too temptingly low. It’s a bait. The Eagles have the hardest SoS of any team heading into next year, and lost some key players in free agency. It’s hard for any team to maintain dominance year-to-year in the NFL, and while I can definitely see them winning 11 games, I’m not betting on it.

13. New Orleans Saints Over 9.5 (+110)
The Saints benefit from one of the weakest schedules of any NFL team, second only to the Falcons. They’re returning decent weapons for their new QB Derek Carr. That said, coaching is still a major concern, and the Saints are also cursed, so. Scary bet to place.

14. San Francisco 49ers Over 11.5 (+105)
Things I don’t like: we don’t know the QB yet, QB position is cursed, no Demeco, 12 wins is a lot.
Things I do like: Shanahan is a wizard, Caff is still there, defense still loaded.
No idea how to weigh those things so, over. But also, maybe under? But over. For now.

15. Los Angeles Rams Over 7.5
They had the season from hell and still won 5 games. Maybe I’m crazy, but I think an engaged McVay and a healthy Stafford + Kupp can go 8-9. Oh yeah, Aaron Donald still there too. All that said, key word is healthy, and I’m not betting on that at alllllll.

Tier 4: UNDER but do NOT hold me to it.
Note: Remember, this is now reverse order. The lower ranked the team, the better I like their under.

16. Cleveland Browns Under 8.5 (+120)
Value here is good, and I just partially like to believe that they’re cursed for signing DeShaun (who was awful, last year). 8-9 feels just about right. That said, no Lamar does weaken the division a bit. Idk. Tough.

17. Atlanta Falcons Under 7.5 (-105)
If Lamar miraculously signs here then this obviously changes, but I just don’t see 8 wins, even with the easiest schedule of any team in the league. I like Desmond Ridder fine, but until Arthur Smith decides Kyle Pitts is allowed to catch the ball, (or that you’re allowed to throw the ball) I’m out on the Falcons.

18. Jacksonville Jaguars Under 9.5 (+120)
I love what’s brewing down in Jacksonville but the AFC is tough, and I could just see a young team struggle with a few more growing pains as they continue to ascend. After all, they barely won 8 last year. 10 is a tall task.

19. Miami Dolphins Under 9.5 (-130)
Division getting harder and Tua being a concussion away from death is spooky. Also, 10 wins is a lot.

Tier 5: 60% of the time these teams go UNDER every time.
20. Chicago Bears Under 7.5 (-105)
I love what Ryan Poles and the Bears did with the first pick. I love the DJ Moore addition. That said, the roster is still pretty shit. And I’m still not sure Justin Fields can throw. 8 wins is a lot for a team that just earned the #1 pick literally a year ago.

21. Las Vegas Raiders Under 7.5 (-140)
I think they’re pretty easily the worst team in the division and their only starting QB right now can’t stay healthy to save his life. Otherwise, what’s not to love?

22. Green Bay Packers Under 7.5 (-135)
I am absolutely a Jordan Love truther. That said, I do NOT believe in the skill position group as of now, and the defense worries me.

23. New England Patriots Under 7.5 (-105)
Bill O’Brien can’t bless this mess. Things look ugly in NE, and I’m not sure how they’re going to look better.

24. Houston Texans Under 5.5 (-110)
You want 6 Texans wins? In this economy? Absolutely not. But hey, maybe Demeco is a god.

Tier 6: They come from the land down UNDER. Get it? Like the song.
25. Baltimore Ravens Under 8.5 (+120)
Assuming Lamar is gone, well. Yikes. Pro Bowl QB Tyler Huntley isn’t thatttt good.

26. Indianapolis Colts Over Under 6.5 (+125)
7 wins for a team with no QB, a brand new head coach, and a weak roster seems bold.

27. Washington Commanders Under 7.5 (-135)
I actually really like the roster a lot, just one problem. Who’s going to play QB again? Also remember, NFCE in general has a brutal schedule.

28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 6.5 (-105)
I hate the coaching. I have no confidence in the QB room. I think they’re the worst team in their division. 7 wins seems insane, honestly.

29. Carolina Panthers Under 7.5 (-110)
Look, I get the coaches are awesome and the defense is still very good. We’re still talking about a first year staff with a BRAND new rookie QB. Even the best rookie QBs are usually pretty shit. Let’s wait a year before we anoint them as an 8 win team.

30. Minnesota Vikings Under 8.5 (-105)
The most fraudulent team from last year. 9 wins is doable, especially in their relatively weak division, but I just don’t think they can do it. This seems like a team destined for a Rams-esque season from last year.

31. New York Giants Under 8.5 (-130)
The Giants were an awesome story last year, but I think reality will set in this year. Their playmakers are still very weak, the defense is porous, and the schedule gets significantly harder. I think the Giants are due for a decent step back, and are likely to go under .500

Tier 7: UNDER and if I’m wrong I deserve to die.
32. New York Jets Under 9.5 (+115)
Bringing Aaron Rodgers to the largest media market in the world with a young team and brand new coaching staff? In a tough division? Ya, absolutelyyyyy not.