Fixing The First Overall Picks’ FLAWS
The guys who should go #1 and the Guys who do go #1 are rarely the same. Let’s fix that.
If the NFL Draft teaches us anything, it’s that the draft is a joke. Guys dedicate their lives to assessing, ranking, and testing the best talent, only to have sixth round pick Tom Brady be the best QB of all time.
It’s a hard job.
An easy job, however, is pointing out where guys went wrong in hindsight. And boy, over these last six years, there’s been a lot of wrong decisions. In fact, I think only one team from the last six drafts would make the same pick if given the chance to do it over again.
My question(s): what were the flaws in the decision making that led to bad choices? And what could the true #1 prospects have done to prove their worthiness at the time?
Make sense? Kind of? You’ll get it, I have faith. Let’s just start with last year.
2022 Fixed #1 Pick: Sauce Gardner but he played in the SEC
The Jaguars, ironically picking #1 overall for the second year in a row, took Travon Walker. Picking first is usually a good thing, but in last year’s draft, it was somehow almost worse. The Jaguars had already committed to a franchise QB in the previous year, and there was no consensus player otherwise to go with. And while Walker wasn’t bad, in hindsight, it seems like Sauce was the clear pick here. Sauce not only won DROY, but he also had one of the best seasons of any corner ever, let alone a rookie. So, retroactively, let’s put Sauce on Alabama. His production at Cincinnati, even if it took a slight dip at Alabama, would’ve been more than enough to put him in the conversation for #1 overall if he put up the same numbers in the SEC. Had the Jaguars taken him instead, it would’ve been the unquestionable best choice at this stage of everyone’s career.
2021 Fixed #1 Pick: Trevor Lawrence but the Jags just hired Doug Pederson the first time
Same guy, same pick, but it would’ve been clearer sooner. The Urban Meyer year was so, so bad that it almost led to a conversation where we’re considering taking someone else over Trevor Lawrence here. Now, Trevor Lawrence is on a short list of QBs that are untouchable. Quite the turnaround.
2020 Fixed #1 Pick: Justin Herbert if he smoked cigars
I get it. Burrow had a very sexy year. He put up historic numbers, won a National Championship, and looked hot as hell doing it. You don’t get nicknamed “Joe Cool” if you’re not deserving. But (fight me Bengals fans) Herbert is just better. He has a better arm while still being just as accurate, and is elite at reading defenses and moving through his progressions. He’s taller and stronger, two easy tie-breakers. His only downfall? He was boring. And quiet. People were afraid he didn’t have the personality of a leader. So naturally, the easy fix? Start chain smoking Cuban cigars after Ducks victories. Kick your feet up in the locker room. Maybe give those iconic locks a hair flip or two. If Herbert even had 20% of Burrow’s vibes, he would’ve (and should’ve) gone first overall.
2019 Fixed #1 Pick: Nick Bosa if Steve Keim got a letter from his future self detailing the gaming clause in Kyler’s new contract
Lots of layers to this one. First, you have to know Steve Keim was the general manager of the Cardinals. Hopefully all good there now? Next, you have to know about the fact the Cardinals included a clause in Kyler’s new mega-contract where he was mandated to study film instead of play video games. Not the greatesttt thing to need to specify when investing in your franchise QB. There’s also the issue of Kyler being injury prone. And 5’10”. If he had the chance to do it all over again, Keim could just take Nick Bosa and relax knowing he had a future DPOY anchoring his defensive line for the next 10 years. Instead, he’s now resigned from the job and the coach he hired is so traumatized from the Kyler experience he’s literally indefinitely living in Southeast Asia currently. If anyone could invest in time travel, it would be Keim, and that letter would be the first use of his new powers.
2018 Fixed #1 Pick: Lamar Jackson but he’s white and named “Lance”
What did Lamar do to deserve being taken #1 overall? Hmm. Not much. Besides, you know, win a Heisman trophy, score 119 collective TDs (including 51 in his Heisman year), and routinely over deliver with an otherwise unimpressive Louisville Cardinals team. Sure, you could easily argue Josh Allen for this spot, too. But that’s a lot less fun than this, so, instead, I’m just gonna ignore that. The fix for Lamar, to make him the clear #1 overall pick, would’ve been to go through the same controversial pigment alteration surgery that Robert Downey Jr.s’ character in Tropic Thunder underwent, then change his name to “Lance” Jackson. Not only would scouts have foregone the notion he should transition to wide receiver, but he would’ve been the #1 overall pick by a landslide. This one would’ve been tough to pull off, but ultimately (and very sadly), probably the only way Lamar could’ve actually been taken first overall.
2017 Fixed #1 Pick: Patrick Mahomes if the Browns had never drafted Johnny Manziel
This draft was so bad, man. Not only did Mahomes not go first overall, he wasn’t even the first QB taken. That was Mitchell Trubisky. The Browns, who at the time were starting CODY KESSLER AT QB, decided to take Myles Garret first overall. And look, Garrett has been awesome. But edges don’t win Super Bowls, and had the Browns not been scarred from their last attempt at drafting a QB in the first round of 2014 (Manziel), maybe they would’ve had the cojones to draft Mahomes instead. But with how bad the Manziel experiment went, the Browns decided to take the easy W and draft Garrett. In hindsight, it’s honestly insane to think about a team with no QB drafting an edge over taking a swing at fixing the most important position in sports, but don’t worry! The Browns went 0-16 because of that decision and found their franchise QB the following year at #1 instead. Oh wait, the Baker pick didn’t work out? Dang.
